Instructors: Dr. Leonid Gavrilov,
Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D.
Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago
Lectures: Monday - Wednesday, 3:00-4:20
There is no required textbook. Lectures will be based on original publications by Russian demographers. In addition to that, a list of supplemental reading in English will be provided before the lecture.
DaVanzo, J.and C.A. Grammich. 2001. Dire Demographics.
Trends in the Russian Federation. Santa Monica, CA: RAND. Available
Demko G., Ioffe G., Zayonchkovskaya, Z.
(eds.) 1999. Population
duress: the geodemography of post-Soviet Russia. Westview Press.
Available online through Google books.
Ruling Russia: Law, Crime, and Justice in
a Changing Society, edited by
W.A. Pridemore. Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield Publ., Inc., 2005
Methods of demographic analysis are
described in the following
Preston, S.H., Heuveline P., Guillot M. 2001. Demography. Blackwell Publishers.
Additional reading on Soviet and
Riasanovsky, N., Steinberg, M. 2004. The History of Russia: Since 1855. Oxford University Press.
Additional recommended reading will be provided before each lecture. Some of the recommended articles could be found at our website: http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/2006/10/russian-studies.html
All students are required to attend.
Every student will prepare a brief
presentation for one of the topics proposed on the schedule. A
with the choice of topics will be circulated. The duration of
presentation is 15 minutes followed by discussion. At least three
references on the topic should be provided. Presentations will start in
There will be one in-class exam with ten
on the topics described in the lectures.
The course grade will be based on attendance (20%), participation in the class (15%), presentation on assigned topic (30%) and final exam (35%).
January 4. Lecture
lecture. Overview of the past and present history of
Russia. Population changes in the Soviet Union from 1917 to 1959.
Jacques Vallin, France Mesle, Serguei Adamets, Serhii Pyrozhkov. A New Estimate of Ukrainian Population Losses during the Crises of the 1930s and 1940s. Population Studies, Vol. 56, No. 3 (Nov., 2002), pp. 249-264
January 6. Lecture
History of Russia since 1985. Gorbachev's perestroyka. Yeltsin's market reforms. The rise of Putin. Current socio-economic situation in Russia.
January 11. Lecture
Basic population concepts. Population number and population distribution. Population growth: rates and components. Depopulation. Population structure and its types. Population pyramid. Population structure by marital status, urban/rural status, education status and ethnicity. Synthetic and real cohorts.
Supplement: Bulding demographic pyramid using Excel
Reading: Anderson, B. 2002. "Russia faces depopulation? Dynamics of population decline," Population and Environment 23(5): 437-64.
Sources of data about population. Population censuses. Statistics of births, deaths, marriages, and divorces. Migration statistics. Population surveys. Health statistics.
Where to find data on population? Please visit a webpage on population data resources
1. Dominique Arel. Demography and Politics in the First Post-Soviet Censuses: Mistrusted State, Contested Identities. Population (English Edition, 2002-), Vol. 57, No. 6 (Nov. - Dec., 2002), pp. 801-827
January 18. Holiday.
January 20. Lecture #5
Fertility measures and concepts. Theories of demographic transition. Factors affecting fertility. Structure and types of reproductive behavior. Demographic transition in Russia and its specifics. Supplements: (1) Calculation of TFR and NRR (Excel file). (2) TFR for 15 countries of the Former Soviet Union (Excel file).
1. Tomas Sobotka. Re-Emerging Diversity: Rapid Fertility Changes in Central and Eastern Europe after the Collapse of the Communist Regimes. Population (English Edition), Vol. 58, No. 4/5 (Jul. - Oct., 2003), pp. 451-485.
2. Alexandre Avdeev, Alain Monnier. A Survey of Modern Russian Fertility. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 7, (1995), pp. 1-38.
3. Magali Barbieri, Alain Blum, Elena Dolkigh, Amon Ergashev. Nuptiality, Fertility, Use of Contraception, and Family Policies in Uzbekistan. Population Studies, Vol. 50, No. 1 (Mar., 1996), pp. 69-88.
January 25. Lecture
Trends in fertility and natural increase. Quantitative estimates of reproductive norms. Reproductive health of Russian women. Abortions in Russia. Past and current trends in marriage and divorce rates. Studies of family in the Soviet Union and Russia.
1. Alexandre Avdeev, Alain Monnier. Marriage in Russia: A Complex Phenomenon Poorly Understood. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 12, (2000), pp. 7-49
2. Alexandre Avdeev, Alain Blum, Irina Troitskaya. The History of Abortion Statistics in Russia and the USSR from 1900 to 1991. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 7, (1995), pp. 39-66
3. Barbara Entwisle, Polina Kozyreva. New Estimates of Induced Abortion in Russia. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 28, No. 1 (Mar., 1997), pp. 14-23
4. Cynthia Buckley, Jennifer Barrett, Yakov P. Asminkin. Reproductive and Sexual Health among Young Adults in Uzbekistan. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 35, No. 1 (Mar., 2004), pp. 1-14
January 27. Lecture #7
Measures of mortality, the concept of life table. The theory of epidemiologic transition. Epidemiologic transition in Russia and its periods. Mortality reversal. Changes in infant mortality. Adult mortality trends and differentials.
1. Victoria A. Velkoff, Jane E. Miller. Trends and Differentials in Infant Mortality in the Soviet Union, 1970-90: How Much Is Due to Misreporting? Population Studies, Vol. 49, No. 2 (Jul., 1995), pp. 241-258
2. Vladimir Shkolnikov, France Mesle, Jacques Vallin. Health Crisis in Russia I. Recent Trends in Life Expectancy and Causes of Death from 1970 to 1993. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 8, (1996), pp. 123-154
3. Vladimir Shkolnikov, France Mesle, Jacques Vallin. Health Crisis in Russia II. Changes in Causes of Death: a Comparison with France and England and Wales (1970 to 1993). Population: An English Selection, Vol. 8, (1996), pp. 155-189
4. WHO Discussion on age-standardized mortality
February 1 . Lecture
Factors affecting mortality. Alcohol consumption and mortality in Russia. Gorbachev's anti-alcohol campaign and its effects on mortality. Yeltsin's "market reforms" and mortality crisis. Current situation with mortality in Russia.
1. Gavrilova, N.S., Semyonova, V.G., Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov, L.A. The response of violent mortality to economic crisis in Russia. Population Research and Policy Review, 2000, 19: 397-419.
2. Barbara A. Anderson, Brian D. Silver. Sex Differentials in Mortality in the Soviet Union: Regional Differences in Length of Working Life in Comparative Perspective. Population Studies, Vol. 40, No. 2 (1986), pp. 191-214.
3. Nemtsov, A. Russia: alcohol yesterday and today. ADDICTION, 2005, 100(2), pp. 146-149.
4. Nemtsov, A. Alcohol consumption in Russia: Is monitoring health conditions in the Russian Federation (RLMS) trustworthy? ADDICTION, 2004, 99(3), pp. 386-387
5. Shkolnikov, VM; Cornia, GAA; Leon, DA, et al. Causes of the Russian mortality crisis: Evidence and interpretations. WORLD DEVELOPMENT, 1998, 26(11), pp.1995-2011
February 3. Lecture
Causes of death and their classification. Major causes of death in Russia. Lifestyle of Russian men and women and its effect on health. Measures of population health. Current threats to population health. Health care system in Russia and health care reforms.
1.Gavrilova N.S., Semyonova V.G., Dubrovina E., Evdokushkina G.N., Ivanova A.E., Gavrilov L.A. Russian Mortality Crisis and the Quality of Vital Statistics. Population Research and Policy Review, 2008, 27: 551-574.
2. William C. Cockerham. The Social Determinants of the Decline of Life Expectancy in Russia and Eastern Europe: A Lifestyle Explanation. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, Vol. 38, No. 2 (Jun., 1997), pp. 117-130
3. Andreev, EM, McKee, M, Shkolnikov, VM. 2003. Health expectancy in the Russian Federation: a new perspective on the health divide in Europe. BULLETIN OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION Volume: 81 Issue: 11 Pages: 778-787.
4. Gavrilova, N.S., Gavrilov, L.A., Semyonova, V.G., Evdokushkina, G.N., Ivanova, A.E. 2005. Patterns of violent crime in Russia. In: Pridemore, W.A. (ed.). Ruling Russia: Law, Crime, and Justice in a Changing Society. Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield Publ., Inc, 117-145.
February 8. Lecture #10
Migration and its effects on population growth and population structure. Forced migrations in the Soviet Union. Migration flows after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
1. Dariusz Stola. Migrations in Central and Eastern Europe. International Migration Review, Vol. 32, No. 4 (Winter, 1998), pp. 1069-1072.
2. Dariusz Stola. Forced Migrations in Central European History. International Migration Review, Vol. 26, No. 2, Special Issue: The New Europe and International Migration (Summer, 1992), pp. 324-341
February 10. Lecture
Population aging in Russia and the Former Soviet Union. Measures of population aging. Major causes of population aging.
Gavrilova N.S., Gavrilov L.A. Rapidly Aging Populations: Russia/Eastern Europe. In: P. Uhlenberg (Editor), International Handbook of the Demography of Aging, New York: Springer-Verlag, 2009, pp.113-131.
February 15. Lecture
Elderly in Russia. Socio-economic consequences of population aging. Demographic dividend. Pension reform.
February 17. Lecture
Ethnic differences in mortality and fertility.
February 22. Preparation for student
presentations, self-directed work. No lecture.
February 24. Preparation for student presentations, self-directed work. No lecture.
March 10. Lecture
Overview of world population policies. Population policies in contemporary Russia. Fertility policies. Mortality policies. Regulation of migration flows.
March 15. Final exam, time: 4:00 -
6:00pm, room 103, HV Building