Instructors: Dr. Leonid Gavrilov,
Ph.D., Dr.
Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D.
Center
on Aging, NORC/University of
Chicago
E-mail: gavrilov@longevity-science.org
Telephone: 773-256-6359
Lectures: Monday - Wednesday, 3:00-4:20
There is no required textbook. Lectures will be based on original publications by Russian demographers. In addition to that, a list of supplemental reading in English will be provided before the lecture.
DaVanzo, J.and C.A. Grammich. 2001. Dire Demographics.
Population
Trends in the Russian Federation. Santa Monica, CA: RAND. Available
online.
Demko G., Ioffe G., Zayonchkovskaya, Z.
(eds.) 1999. Population
under
duress: the geodemography of post-Soviet Russia. Westview Press.
Available online through Google books.
Ruling Russia: Law, Crime, and Justice in
a Changing Society, edited by
W.A. Pridemore. Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield Publ., Inc., 2005
Methods of demographic analysis are
described in the following
textbook:
Preston, S.H., Heuveline P., Guillot M. 2001. Demography.
Blackwell Publishers.
Additional reading on Soviet and
post-Soviet
history:
Riasanovsky, N., Steinberg, M. 2004. The
History of Russia:
Since 1855. Oxford University Press.
Additional recommended reading will be provided before each lecture. Some of the recommended articles could be found at our website: http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/2006/10/russian-studies.html
All students are required to attend.
Every student will prepare a brief
presentation for one of the topics proposed on the schedule. A
sign-up sheet
with the choice of topics will be circulated. The duration of
presentation is 15 minutes followed by discussion. At least three
references on the topic should be provided. Presentations will start in
May.
There will be one in-class exam with ten
multiple-choice questions
on the topics described in the lectures.
The course grade will be based on attendance (20%), participation in the class (15%), presentation on assigned topic (30%) and final exam (35%).
March 31. Lecture
#1. Introductory
lecture. Overview of the past and present history of
Russia.
April 2. Lecture #2
History of Russia since 1985. Gorbachev's perestroyka.
Yeltsin's market reforms. The rise of Putin. Current
socio-economic situation in Russia.
April 7. Lecture
#3
Basic population concepts. Population number and population
distribution.
Population growth: rates and components. Depopulation. Population
structure and its types.
Population pyramid. Population structure by marital status,
urban/rural status,
education status and ethnicity. Synthetic and real cohorts.
Supplement: Bulding demographic pyramid using Excel
Reading: Anderson, B. 2002. "Russia faces depopulation?
Dynamics of population decline," Population
and Environment 23(5): 437-64.
April 9.
Lecture #4
Sources
of data about population. Population censuses. Statistics of births,
deaths, marriages, and divorces. Migration statistics. Population
surveys. Health statistics.
Where to find data on population? Please visit a webpage on population data resources
Population changes in the Soviet Union from 1917 to 1959. Brief
overview.
Reading:
1. Dominique Arel. Demography and Politics in the First
Post-Soviet
Censuses: Mistrusted State, Contested Identities. Population (English Edition,
2002-), Vol. 57, No. 6 (Nov. - Dec., 2002), pp. 801-827
2. Jacques
Vallin, France Mesle, Serguei Adamets, Serhii Pyrozhkov. A New Estimate
of Ukrainian Population Losses during the Crises of the 1930s and
1940s. Population Studies,
Vol. 56, No. 3 (Nov., 2002), pp. 249-264
April 14. Lecture #5
Fertility measures and concepts. Theories of
demographic transition. Factors affecting fertility. Structure and
types of reproductive behavior. Demographic transition in Russia and
its specifics. Supplements:
(1) Calculation of TFR and NRR (Excel
file). (2) TFR for 15 countries of the Former Soviet Union (Excel file).
Reading:
1. Tomas Sobotka. Re-Emerging Diversity: Rapid Fertility
Changes in Central and Eastern Europe after the Collapse of the
Communist Regimes. Population
(English Edition), Vol. 58, No. 4/5 (Jul. - Oct., 2003), pp.
451-485.
2. Alexandre Avdeev, Alain Monnier. A Survey of Modern
Russian Fertility. Population:
An English Selection, Vol. 7, (1995), pp. 1-38.
3. Magali Barbieri, Alain Blum, Elena Dolkigh, Amon
Ergashev.
Nuptiality, Fertility, Use of Contraception, and Family Policies in
Uzbekistan. Population Studies,
Vol. 50, No. 1 (Mar., 1996), pp. 69-88.
April 16. Lecture #6
Population Association of America Meeting. Lecture will be transferred
to another date.
April 21. Lecture
#6-7
Trends in fertility and natural increase. Quantitative
estimates of reproductive norms. Reproductive health of Russian women.
Abortions in Russia.
Past and current
trends in marriage and divorce rates. Studies of family in the Soviet
Union and Russia.
Reading:
1. Alexandre Avdeev, Alain Monnier. Marriage in Russia: A
Complex
Phenomenon Poorly Understood. Population:
An English Selection, Vol.
12, (2000), pp. 7-49
2. Alexandre Avdeev, Alain Blum, Irina Troitskaya. The History
of Abortion Statistics in Russia and the USSR from 1900 to 1991. Population: An English Selection,
Vol. 7, (1995), pp. 39-66
3. Barbara Entwisle, Polina Kozyreva. New Estimates of
Induced Abortion in Russia. Studies
in Family Planning, Vol. 28, No. 1 (Mar., 1997), pp. 14-23
4. Cynthia Buckley, Jennifer Barrett, Yakov P. Asminkin.
Reproductive and Sexual Health among Young Adults in Uzbekistan. Studies in Family Planning, Vol.
35, No. 1 (Mar., 2004), pp. 1-14
April 23. Lecture #8
Measures of mortality, the concept of life table.
The theory of epidemiologic transition. Epidemiologic transition in
Russia and its periods. Mortality reversal. Changes in infant
mortality. Adult mortality
trends and differentials.
Reading:
1. Victoria A. Velkoff, Jane E. Miller. Trends and Differentials
in Infant Mortality in the Soviet Union, 1970-90: How Much Is Due to
Misreporting? Population Studies,
Vol. 49, No. 2 (Jul., 1995), pp. 241-258
2. Vladimir Shkolnikov, France Mesle, Jacques Vallin.
Health Crisis in Russia I. Recent Trends in Life Expectancy and Causes
of Death from 1970 to 1993. Population:
An English Selection, Vol. 8, (1996), pp. 123-154
3. Vladimir Shkolnikov, France Mesle, Jacques Vallin.
Health Crisis in Russia II. Changes in Causes of Death: a Comparison
with France and England and Wales (1970 to 1993). Population: An English Selection,
Vol. 8, (1996), pp. 155-189
4. WHO
Discussion on age-standardized mortality
April 28. Lecture
#9
Factors affecting mortality. Alcohol consumption
and mortality in Russia. Gorbachev's anti-alcohol campaign and its
effects on mortality. Yeltsin's "market reforms" and mortality crisis.
Current situation with mortality in Russia.
Reading:
1. Gavrilova, N.S., Semyonova, V.G., Evdokushkina
G.N., Gavrilov, L.A. The response of
violent mortality to economic crisis in Russia. Population Research and Policy Review,
2000, 19: 397-419.
2. Barbara A. Anderson, Brian D. Silver. Sex
Differentials in Mortality in the Soviet Union: Regional Differences in
Length of Working Life in Comparative Perspective. Population Studies, Vol. 40, No. 2
(1986), pp. 191-214.
3. Nemtsov, A. Russia: alcohol yesterday and today.
ADDICTION, 2005, 100(2), pp. 146-149.
4. Nemtsov, A. Alcohol consumption in Russia: Is
monitoring health conditions in the Russian Federation (RLMS)
trustworthy? ADDICTION, 2004, 99(3), pp. 386-387
5. Shkolnikov, VM; Cornia, GAA; Leon, DA, et al.
Causes of the Russian mortality crisis: Evidence and interpretations.
WORLD DEVELOPMENT, 1998, 26(11), pp.1995-2011
April 30. Lecture
#10
Causes of death and their classification. Major causes of death in
Russia. Lifestyle of Russian men and women and its effect on health.
Measures of population health. Current threats to population health.
Health care system in Russia and health care reforms.
Reading:
1. William C. Cockerham, M. Christine Snead, Derek F.
DeWaal. Health Lifestyles in Russia and the Socialist Heritage. Journal of Health and Social Behavior,
Vol. 43, No. 1 (Mar., 2002), pp. 42-55.
2. William C. Cockerham. The Social Determinants of the
Decline of Life Expectancy in Russia and Eastern Europe: A Lifestyle
Explanation. Journal of Health and
Social Behavior, Vol. 38, No. 2 (Jun., 1997), pp. 117-130
3. Andreev, EM, McKee, M, Shkolnikov, VM. 2003. Health
expectancy in the Russian Federation: a new perspective on the health
divide in Europe. BULLETIN OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION
Volume: 81 Issue: 11 Pages: 778-787.
May 5. Lecture #11
Migration and its effects on population growth and population
structure. Forced migrations in the Soviet Union. Migration flows after
the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Reading:
1. Dariusz Stola. Migrations in Central and Eastern
Europe. International Migration
Review, Vol. 32, No. 4 (Winter, 1998), pp. 1069-1072.
2. Dariusz Stola. Forced Migrations in Central European
History. International Migration
Review, Vol. 26, No. 2, Special Issue: The New Europe and
International Migration (Summer, 1992), pp. 324-341
May 7. Lecture
#12
Population aging in Russia and the Former Soviet Union. Measures of
population aging. Major causes of population aging.
Reading:
Natalia S. Gavrilova and Leonid A. Gavrilov. Rapidly Aging Populations:
Russia/Eastern Europe. To be published in "International Handbook
of Population Aging" (editor: Peter Uhlenberg).
May 12. Lecture #13
Population processes in the countries of the Former Soviet Union.
Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and the Baltic countries. Student
presentations:
- Estonia by
Jeannette Daly
- Lithuania
by Lindsey Royer
- Belarus
by Berney Richert
May 14. Lecture #14
Population development in Central Asia and Caucasus.
Student presentations:
- Armenia
by Craig Johnson
- Georgia
by Jane Charney
- Uzbekistan
by Boram Shin
May 19. Lecture
#15
Elderly in Russia.
Socio-economic consequences of population aging. Demographic
dividend. Pension reform.
May 21. Lecture
#16
Ethnic differences in mortality. Violent crime in Russia and its
effect on population.
Reading:
Gavrilova, N.S., Gavrilov, L.A., Semyonova, V.G.,
Evdokushkina, G.N., Ivanova, A.E. 2005. Patterns
of violent crime in Russia. In: Pridemore, W.A. (ed.). Ruling Russia: Law, Crime, and Justice in
a Changing Society. Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield Publ.,
Inc, 117-145.
May 26. Holiday.
May 28. Lecture
#17
Overview of world population policies. Population policies in
contemporary Russia. Fertility policies. Mortality policies. Regulation
of migration flows.